新能源发电约束下中国长期电力系统规划

根据国家能源发展政策,以新能源发电装机容量为指标,设置新能源发展目标。基于区间机会约束方法,以系统成本最小为目标,重点考虑新能源发展约束,兼顾电力供需和环境减排,构建了新能源发电约束下的中国长期(2021—2050年)电力系统规划模型。该模型不仅可表征区间和随机不确定性对电力系统的影响,而且可得到不确定性条件下常规能源和新能源最优发电方案。研究结果表明,未来30年中国电力生产结构仍以常规能源为主,但新能源发电占比逐渐增加。规划期末,新能源将肩负43%的电力生产任务。此外,研究结果还表明2021—2030年水电发电量以年均1.5%～2.6%的速度增加,2030年后其发电量则基本保持稳定。

Long-term electric power system planning of China under constraint of new energy power generation

In accordance with the national energy development policy，the target for the new energy development is set up by taking the installation capacity of the new energy power generation as the index． Based on the interval chance-constrained approach and taking the minimization of the system cost as the objective，the model for the long-term electric power system planning of China ( 2021-2050) under the constraint of new energy power generation is established under the emphatic consideration of the constraints on the new energy development and the consideration of both the electric power supply and demand and the environmental emission reduction． The model can not only characterize the impact from the interval and random uncertainty on the electric power system，but can also obtain the optimal power generation schemes of both the conventional energy and new energy under the conditions of uncertainty． The study result shows that the electric power generation structure is still dominated by the conventional energy in China in the future 30 years，but the proportion of the new energy power generation is to be gradually increased． At the end of the planning period，43% of the electric power production task is to be undertaken by the new energy． Additionally，the study result also shows that the hydropower generation from 2021 to 2030 is to be increased with the mean annual growth rate of 1. 5% to 2. 6%，while the hydropower generation is to maintain stable after 2030 as well．