中国东中西部地区天然气需求影响因素分析及未来走势预测

中国东部、中部和西部地区因生态环境、经济发展、资源状况等存在着差异性,影响天然气需求的因素也有所不同。为了充分认识上述差异性,利用灰色关联度模型从GDP、产业结构、环保机制、城镇化率、人口密度、能源消耗强度、能源消费结构等7个影响因素中,筛选出对上述各区天然气需求影响较大的3个核心因素,分析其与天然气消费量之间的内在联系,进而建立分数阶GM(1, N)模型,对各区域的天然气需求量进行预测。研究结果表明:(1)对东部地区天然气需求影响最大的3个因素依次为能源消费结构、GDP和城镇化率,中部地区依次为GDP、能源消费结构和城镇化率,西部地区则依次为城镇化率、产业结构和人口密度;(2)东部地区在规划天然气消费政策方面要着重加强对能源消费结构的调整,中部地区要着重调控经济发展与能源消费之间的关系,西部地区则应加快城镇化建设,以此带动天然气消费量的增长;(3)基于3个核心因素建立的分数阶GM(1, 3)模型能够很好地拟合历史需求量数据,具有良好的预测性能;(4)预测2020—2025年中国东中西部地区天然气需求量均呈稳步上升趋势,但受能源改革及外部经济环境的影响,增速均会有所下滑,并在2025年分别达约2 440×10~8 m~3、640×10~8 m~3和1 000×10~8 m~3,届时全国的天然气需求量将达4 080×10~8 m~3。

Influencing factors and future trends of natural gas demand inthe eastern,central and western areas of China based on the grey model

Due to the various ecological environment, economic development and resources, the main influencing factors of natural gas consumption are different in the eastern, central and western areas of China. To fully understand such discrepancy, we adopted the Grey Relation model to select three main significant factors from 7 potential impacts including gross domestic product (GDP), industry structure, environmental protection mechanism, urbanization rate, population density, energy consumption intensity and energy consumption structure. Then, we analyzed the internal relevance between the selected three factors and the regional natural gas consumption. Furthermore, we established the grey model GM(1, N) with fractional order accumulation to predict the future demand of natural gas consumption in the eastern, central and western areas of China based on the selected three factors. The following results were achieved. (1) Energy consumption structure, GDP, and urbanization rate are three main influencing factors of natural gas consumption in the eastern and central areas, while in the western area, the three main factors are urbanization rate, industry structure and population density. (2) In terms of planning natural gas consumption policies, adjustment of energy consumption structure should be strengthened in the eastern area, relationship between economic development and energy consumption should be focused on in the central area, urbanization should be speeded up in the western area. (3) The GM(1,3) model based on three main factors, well fitting historic demand data, will have a good prediction performance. (4) Natural gas demand in the eastern, central and western areas will achieve a sustainable growth in 2020–2025. However, such growth rate may decrease due to energy reform and external economic environment. By 2025, natural gas demand in these three areas will be about 244 bcm (billion cubic meters), 64 bcm and 100 bcm respectively, with a total value of 408 bcm for the whole China.