突变级数法在硫化矿爆堆自燃发火预测中的应用

提出了一种基于突变级数理论的硫化矿爆堆自燃发火的综合预测方法。对影响爆堆自燃的预测目标进行多层次矛盾分解，利用突变理论与模糊数学方法相结合产生突变模糊隶属函数，由归一公式进行综合量化运算，最后归一为一个参数，即求出总的隶属函数，从而进行爆堆自燃发火的分析预测。利用插值法确定了5种自燃危险性等级，并为各等级划分了突变级数值区域，接着以7个典型的矿山的矿样实例进行测试，最后将这种方法的预测结果与道化学预测结果以及与矿堆的实际情况进行比较。研究结果表明，突变级数法成功率高、客观性强，对某铜矿的判别率高；对通风条件不明的6个典型矿山的判别率也能达到83.3%，为硫化矿爆堆自燃发火预测的研究提供了一条新思路。

Application of Catastrophe Progression Method in Forecasting Spontaneous Combustion of Blasted Muckpile of Sulfide Ore

An integrated method for forecasting the spontaneous combustion of blasted muckpile of sulfide ore is proposed which is based on catastrophe progression theory. The method makes a multi-level contradiction decomposition of the forecast objects influencing the spontaneous combustion of muckpile, obtains catastrophe fuzzy member function by combining the catastrophe theory and fuzzy mathematics, and carries out comprehensive quantified calculation by normalization formula to finally obtain one parameter, or the total member function for forecasting the spontaneous combustion of muckpile. Five spontaneous risk levles are determined by interpolation method and catastrophe progression value scope is defined for each level. Testing is made on ore samples from seven typical mines. The forecast results of this method, the Dow chemi- cal forecast results and the real conditions of muckpile are compared. The results show that the catastrophe progression method has high success rate and strong objectivity. Its discriminate rate for a copper ore is rather high and can also reach 83.3% for other six typical ores with unknown ventilation conditions. It provides a new way for the research on the forecast of spontaneous combustion of sulfide ore muckpile.