基于系统动力学的配电网建设项目投资纠偏与优化

针对目前电网建设项目投资纠偏与优化中存在的问题,将配电网建设项目的成本、质量、进度三大投资效果视为一个统一整体,在分析三大投资效果之间的关系后建立了对应的因果关系图,进而基于系统动力学构建了配电网项目投资纠偏与优化系统动力学模型,并以某配电网建设项目为例,模拟了不同质量、进度要求下对应的成本费用偏差,能够为配电网建设项目的投资决策提供定量依据。

Correction and Optimization of Distribution Network Construction Project Investment Based on System Dynamics

To deal with the problems that exist in the investment correction and optimization of present distribution network construction project, the investment efficiencies of the cost, quality and progress are taken as integration. Based on the analysis of the relationship among three investment efficiencies, the causality diagram is then established. Furthermore, the system dynamics model is built on the basis of system dynamics theory and applied to a case of distribution network construction project. The cost deviation is obtained by simulating the different requirement of quality and progress in this case. Therefore, this paper can provide quantitative basis for investment decision on distribution network construction project.