南方山区线路覆冰在线监测数据特征分析与预测模型研究

我国南方山区由于地形气候的影响,易在冬季导致输电线路严重覆冰,进而给电网的安全运行带来巨大的挑战。因此通过对线路覆冰研究,总结出南方山区覆冰数据中的规律和存在问题,其重要性不言而喻。先从覆冰在线监测系统的原理入手,并针对南方某典型山区覆冰在线监测数据开展导线覆冰特征定量分析,总结出该山区在不同微气象条件下,各个气象参数组合对覆冰的影响的规律。最后,提出一种基于模糊逻辑和神经网络建立输电线路覆冰组合预测模型的方法。

Analysis of the characteristics for on-line monitoring data and research of the forecast model of the line icing in southern mountain area

The transmission line is easy to ice severely in winter because of the influence of terrain climate in southern mountain area, which brings great challenge to the safe operation of power system. Therefore, it is important to discover the law and to find the defect of the icing data in this area through researching transmission line icing. Firstly, the principle of on-line monitoring system for transmission line icing is discussed. On this basis, the characteristic of icing is analyzed based on the on-line monitoring data. Moreover, the law of the influence on the ice of the combination of various meteorological parameters is summarized in different micro meteorological conditions of this mountain area. Finally, a method based on fuzzy logic and artificial neural network is proposed to build the combination model for forecasting the icing of the transmission line.