基于AHP-模糊评价的采空区稳定性研究

针对采空区频繁的出现大规模失稳问题，提出一种基于AHP-模糊评价的失稳预测模型。综合考虑采空区失稳的诱因，优选区域地质水文因素、岩石强度性能因素、采空区环境因素和采空区结构参数等4个一级指标及相对应的20个二级指标，建立采空区稳定性评价指标体系，运用层次分析法计算相应的权重向量，结合模糊综合评价理论，对采空区稳定性进行综合评价，将该模型运用到云南羊拉铜矿里农矿段采空区稳定性评价中。研究结果表明：该矿山的采空区稳定性评价等级V4，失稳程度高，综合系统得分69.4515，所得结论与矿山实际情况较吻合，尽而验证了该模型的可靠性。为后续采矿方案设计和执行提供理论依据，有效缓解矿山失稳所带来的灾害。

Study on the stability of mined-out area based on AHP-fuzzy evaluation

Aiming at the frequent occurrence of large-scale instability in goafs, an instability prediction model based on AHP-fuzzy evaluation is proposed. Comprehensively considering the incentives for the instability of the mined-out area, four primary indicators, such as regional geological and hydrological factors, rock strength performance factors, environmental factors of the mined-out area, and structural parameters of the mined-out area, and the corresponding 20 secondary indicators are selected to establish The evaluation index system of the stability of the empty area, using the analytic hierarchy process to calculate the corresponding weight vector, combined with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory, to comprehensively evaluate the stability of the goaf, and apply the model to the goaf in the agricultural section of the Yangla copper mine Zone stability evaluation. The research results show that the mine''s gob stability evaluation level is V4, and the degree of instability is high. The comprehensive system score is 69.4515. The conclusions obtained are in good agreement with the actual situation of the mine, which verifies the reliability of the model. Provide a theoretical basis for the design and implementation of subsequent mining programs, and effectively alleviate the disasters caused by mine instability.