中日与俄罗斯油气合作中的竞争态势分析

俄罗斯是全球油气生产大国，与日本的经济互补性强，但双方的能源合作尚处于较低水平，2011年俄对日石油出口仅占日本石油进口总量的4％，在日本进口的LNG中来自俄罗斯的气源仅占9％，两国在油气合作方面应该大有潜力可挖。中日两国一直在寻求通过油气进口多元化保障自身的能源安全，日俄能源合作对中俄能源合作会带来冲击和影响。对于与中日两国的能源合作，俄罗斯所持态度一直比较中立。俄罗斯采取保障自身利益最大化、追求出口多元化的对外能源合作策略，而且其油气出口重心不在亚太地区，再加上日本遏制中国和平崛起的政治意图，这就在客观上决定了中日在与俄能源合作中的竞争不可避免，且具有长期性和艰巨性。日本一直在与俄罗斯能源合作问题上排挤和提防中国，争取与俄罗斯开展长期稳定的油气合作，对中国具有重要战略意义。中国应该从战略高度认识中日两国在与俄罗斯能源合作中的竞争关系，树立竞争意识，力争在与日本的竞争中取得先机。同时要充分利用国际能源行业结构变革的机遇。加快国内天然气价格改革步伐，为中俄能源合作创造良好的经济环境。

A Study on the Competition between China and Japan in Petroleum Cooperation with Russia

Russia is a major oil and gas producer.Its economy is highly complementary to Japanese economy, but their cooperation in the energy sector remains at a relatively low level.In 2011 ,Russian oil accounted for only 4% of Japan＇s oil imports and Russian LNG represented only 9% of Japan＇s LNG imports,meaning that there is big potential for a deeper oil and gas cooperation between the two countries.Both China and Japan are seeking to ensure their respective energy security by diversifying oil and gas import sources.The energy cooperation between Russia and Japan will impact the energy cooperation between Russia and China. Rus- sia has long stayed neutral towards its energy cooperation with China and Japan and adopted an energy co- operation strategy developed to maximize its interest and diversify export destinations.In addition,Russia＇s fo- cus of oil and gas export is not on the Asia Pacific Region.Japan＇s political intentions of containing China＇s ＂peaceful rise＂ has decided that the competition between China and Japan in energy cooperation with Russia is inevitable and will last for a long period of time and continue to intensify.Japan has long been trying to elbow out and been on guard against China in the energy cooperation with Russia.Establishing a long-term and stable oil and gas cooperation with Russia is of great strategic significance to China.China should under- stand its competition with Japan in energy cooperation with Russia from a strategic perspective,set up the consciousness of competition and try to get advantages in its competition with Japan.China should also use the opportunity offered by the change in the structure of the global energy industry to quicken its pace of reforming natural gas pricing to create a good economic environment for a deeper cooperation with Russia in the energy sector.