| 灰色预测模型的选择及其在大坝安全预报中应用的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王艳慧,曹红杰,杨国祥.灰色预测模型的选择及其在大坝安全预报中应用的研究[J].地矿测绘,2001(2):6-9. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王艳慧 曹红杰 杨国祥 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中南工业大学,
2. 湖南五强溪电厂水工部, |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了现有实践中灰色预测模型用于大坝安全预报的不足,在阐述GM(n,1)系列模型构建机理的基础上,指出应该运用灰色系统的理论和方法构建不同的模型,并对模型精度从拟合效果和试报效果两方面综合加以评价,全面进行比较以输出最优预报模型.最后针对这一观点,运用6种模型从大坝位移、地下水、洪水位的预测等方面举出实例加以阐述.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色预测 精度评估 模型选择 大坝安全预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-9394(2001)02-0006-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000年6月12日 |
Study of the Optimum Collection of Grey Forecast Model and Its Application in Dam's Forecast |
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| WANG Yan-hui ,CAO Hong-jie ,YANG Guo-xiang.Study of the Optimum Collection of Grey Forecast Model and Its Application in Dam's Forecast[J].Surveying and Mapping of Geology and Mineral Resources,2001(2):6-9. |
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| Authors: | WANG Yan-hui CAO Hong-jie YANG Guo-xiang |
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| Affiliation: | WANG Yan-hui 1,CAO Hong-jie 2,YANG Guo-xiang 3 |
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| Abstract: | This paper analysed the shortage of Grey Model in dam's forecast in practice. Based on presenting how to form Grey Models, it is indicated that many models should be formed with Grey System Theory and that the models precision should be valued in the term with both effects of simulation and forecast, which are compared and the best is choosed. At last, some examples from dam's displacement, groundwater and flood level are given to stand by the points in six models. |
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| Keywords: | Grey forecast Precision value Model collecting Dam safety forecast |
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