基于灰色关联模型的南京市碳排放驱动因素研究

全球气候变暖已经成为不争的事实,人们逐渐认识到依靠大量能源消费的生产方式、不惜牺牲环境的经济增长模式、无节制大量消费的生活方式应该从根本上得到改变.城市作为工业、建筑、交通的载体,也是高能耗、高碳排放的主要源头,需要改变传统城市发展的模式来应对全球变暖的挑战,发展低碳城市被认为是未来最有希望的经济发展动力.首先采用IPCC能源转换模型对南京市碳排量进行测算,选取南京的人口数量、GDP、人均GDP、人口城市化率、产业结构多元化系数(ESD)、能源消费结构多元化系数(ESCD)和能源强度作为对比数列,以南京CO2排放总量作为参考数列,运用灰色系统关联模型进行关联度计算并排序.结果显示,南京市碳排放量关联度从大到小依次为ESD、人口数量、城市化率、ECSD、能源强度、人均GDP、GDP,这与南京工业生产因化石能源的大量使用对城市碳排放量贡献占总排量一半以上的分析结果相吻合.最后详细分析各指标对南京建设低碳城市的影响,并提出对策建议.

Research on carbon emissions driving factors of Nanjing based on grey correlation model

Global warming has become an indisputable fact.People get to know that the mode of production relying on over consuming energy,the mode of economic development at the expense of the environment and the excessive spending life style should be fundamentally changed.Cities are not only the carrier of industry,construction,transportation,but also the main source of high energy consumption and high carbon emissions.In order to deal with the challenge of global warming,we need to change the traditional pattern of urban development.The paper first adopts IPCC energy conversion model to test the carbon emissions in Nanjing,then choses indexes including population,GDP,per capita GDP,population urbanization rate,coefficient of diversified industrial structure(ESD),coefficient of diversified energy consumption structure(ESCD) and energy intensity of Nanjing as the comparison sequences,specifies Nanjing''s CO₂ emissions as a reference sequence,then calculates and sorts the association degree of the comparison sequences with the reference sequence using grey correlation model.The result shows that according to the correlation with carbon emissions in Nanjing,the descending order should be ESD,population,urbanization rate,ECSD,energy intensity,per capita GDP,and GDP.It''s in line with the data provided by the research that industrial emission for production holds over 50% because of the wide use of fossil energy.The potential contribution of related indexes to Nanjing''s building of low-carbon city are elaborated,hence some suggestions are put forward for policy makers.