基于随机模拟法的水库防洪风险分析

塔尔水库是博尔博松流域规划的一项非常重要的水利设施，有巨大的防洪灌溉的功能和作用。以塔尔水库为例．基于该水库1970～2010年夏汛共40a相关模拟洪水资料，运用随机模拟法，模拟出3000场夏汛洪水过程，进而计算分析水库防洪风险。结果表明，实行分期汛限水位控制可以有效降低水库的防洪风险；分时段提高汛限水位可以有效提高汛末水位，增加水库汛末蓄满率；后汛期水位不是变化很大时水库的风险不会发生大变化，但不宜将水位提的过高。希望研究结果能为今后塔尔水库的建设或类似水利设施的防洪工作提供科学指导。

Risk Analysis on Reservoir Flood Control Based on Monte-Carlo Method

Tal Reservoir is a very important water conservancy facility in Boerbosong Basin,which has the immense status and role in flood control irrigation.This paper to Tal Reservoir as an example,based on the reservoir of 1970~2010 summer flood for the flood data 40 years,using random simulation method,simulating the flood process design in 3000 summer games,and then calculating and analyzing the reservoir flood risk.The result shows that the implementation of the staged limited water level control can effectively reduce the risk of reservoir flood control;staging to improve the flood control level can increase the water level in the end of the flood,increasing the rate of the reservoir fills in the end of the flood;after the flood season water level is not changed greatly when the reservoir’s risk will be not great change,but not mentioning that the water level is too high.I hope the study of result that can provide scientific guidance for the future of Tal Reservoir or similar water conservancy facilities in flood prevention.