电网连锁故障分析方法评述

由于近年来世界范围内发生了不少大停电事故,这些事故多表现为连锁故障,因而电网连锁故障的研究日益受到重视。国内外的研究人员就此从多个角度提出了各种分析方法以及数学模型来研究电网连锁故障的发生、发展机理及其表现形式。本文对这些研究成果分为如下四类进行了评述①模拟物理过程的模式搜索法;②模拟物理过程的宏观评估法;③简化物理过程的宏观复杂系统理论法;④简化物理过程的宏观复杂网络法。文章的最后对今后可能的研究方向进行了展望,指出应该考虑连锁故障发展过程中安全自动装置动作这一类更加复杂而普遍的行为以反映真实的连锁故障发展过程,在计算资源受限的条件下,可以从相继开断的角度来考虑连锁故障的分析和预防;复杂系统理论方法应尽可能地利用反映电网实际连锁故障过程的样本数据以避免简单建模和真实物理过程之间误差;复杂网络法可以考虑和模拟物理过程的方法紧密结合以更真实地反映电网的结构脆弱性。

Comment on Analysis Method of Cascading Outages in Power Grid

Many severe cases of black outs have taken place recently among different countries, most of which exhibit cascading outage, so the study on cascading outage of power grid is becoming more and more popular. Various means of analysis and mathematic models have been brought forward concerning the reasons why the cascading outages happened, the rules of their proceeding, and their typical behaviors. This paper classifies different methods as four types as follows and provides detailed comments: modeling physical process based model search method, modeling physical process based macroscopic assessment method, simplified physical process and complex system theory based macroscopic analysis method, and simplified physical process and complex network theory based macroscopic analysis method. Finally, the prospects of some new researches are discussed as well.