| 中长期径流预报研究进展及发展趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 李红波,夏潮军,王淑英. 中长期径流预报研究进展及发展趋势[J]. 人民黄河, 2012, 0(8): 36-38,40 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李红波 夏潮军 王淑英 |
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| 作者单位： | 绍兴县平水江水库管理处;绍兴县水文站;浙江省水文局 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51109224);水利部“948”项目(201026);2011年浙江省级部门水利专项(317010-2011-0072) |
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| 摘 要： | 从中长期径流演变规律、径流预报因子识别、径流预报模型和径流预报系统4个方面阐述了中长期径流预报的研究进展,在此基础上分析了中长期径流预报面临的主要问题和发展趋势。未来中长期径流预报研究应更加注重多学科综合和跨学科交叉,更加注重预报方法的适用性及预报结果的可靠性、稳定性,更加注重高新技术的应用。
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| 关 键 词： | 径流预报 中长期预报 预报系统 水文模型 预报因子识别 |
Research Progress and Develepment Trend of Medium-Long Term Runoff Forecasting |
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| LI Hong-bo,XIA Chao-jun,WANG Shu-ying. Research Progress and Develepment Trend of Medium-Long Term Runoff Forecasting[J]. Yellow River, 2012, 0(8): 36-38,40 |
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| Authors: | LI Hong-bo XIA Chao-jun WANG Shu-ying |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Shaoxing Pingshuijiang Reservoir Management Office,Shaoxing 312050,China;2.Shaoxing Hydrology Station,Shaoxing 312030,China; 3.Hydrological Bureau of Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou 310009,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the introduction of the research progress on medium-long term runoff devolvement rule,forecasting factors recognition,forecasting model and forecasting system,the paper analyzed the main problems and development tendency of medium-long term runoff forecasting.The research should focus on multi-disciplinary and cross-disciplinary,and should pay more attention to applicability of methods,reliability of results and application of new technology in the future. |
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| Keywords: | runoff forecasting medium-long term forecasting forecast system hydrological model recognition of forecasting factors |
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