中国“十三五”新能源并网消纳形势、对策研究及多情景运行模拟分析

近年来，随着新能源快速发展，中国局部地区消纳形势严峻，在深入分析中国新能源并网消纳现况及存在主要问题基础上，从电源侧、电网侧、负荷侧以及市场机制设计等4个方面，研究提出“十三五”促进中国新能源大规模开发和消纳的关键举措。通过时序生产模拟方法，对2020年新能源消纳能力进行多情景分析，研究各项措施对提高新能源消纳能力的贡献程度，分析实现新能源消纳目标存在的不确定性，提出通过推动相关各方共同努力促进新能源消纳的重点措施，力争到2020年将弃风弃光率控制在5%以内的合理范围。

Research on Situation and Countermeasures of New Energy Integration in the 13th Five-Year Plan Period and Its Multi-Scenario Simulation

With the rapid development of new energy generation, the consumption of new energy has been faced with severe situation in partial areas in China recently. In this study, key initiatives have been put forward to promote large-scale new energy domestic consumption in the 13th Five-Year Plan period through the design of power supply side, grid side, load side and market mechanism based on in-depth analysis of present status and principal problem of new energy consumption in China. Through multi-scenario analysis and time-sequential power system production simulation of new energy consumptive ability, contributions of different measures to possible consumption improvement are analyzed. Existing uncertainty in new energy consumption is also analyzed. Key initiatives for promoting joint efforts of all parties are proposed to stimulate consumption, aiming at keeping wind and photovoltaic power curtailment within 5% boundary.