实施非水可再生能源配额情景下的发电行业CO2排放预测

发电行业是落实中国碳减排目标的重点领域。为实现中国到2020年单位国内生产总值CO₂排放比2005年下降40%~45%和非化石能源占一次能源消费比重达到15%左右的碳减排目标，国家能源局拟实行可再生能源配额制，要求2020年各煤电企业承担的非水可再生能源发电量配额与煤电发电量的比重达到15%以上。分别基于国家《能源发展战略行动计划（2014-2020年）》和征求意见的15%非水可再生能源发电量配额政策，对发电行业到2020年的CO₂排放情况进行了预测，并基于2020年全国的碳减排目标对发电行业的碳减排任务进行了计算。预测结果表明，实施15%的非水可再生能源配额之后，2020年非水可再生能源发电量将在行动计划预计值的基础上进一步提高，达到7514亿kW·h，在总发电量中占比9.94%，相应地，单位发电量CO₂排放量为580.5 kg/（MW·h），比2005年下降27.4%。

Predictions of CO2 Emission of Power Generation in the Circumstance of Applying Non-Hydro Renewable Energy Quota

The power generation is the key area of carbon emission reduction in China. In order to reach the goals of reducing the CO₂ emission per unit of GDP by 40%~45% from that in 2005 and raising the weight of the non-fossil energy in the primary energy consumption to around 15%, the National Energy Administration plans to introduce the renewable portfolio standard, i.e. the ratio of the electricity production from non-hydro renewable energy resources to that from the coal fired power stations shall be higher than 15%. Based on the national “Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014–2020)” and the proposed policy of the renewable energy quota, the CO₂ emission of the power generation in 2020 is predicted, and the targets of carbon emission reduction are calculated. The results show that by applying the quota (15%) of non-hydro renewable energy, the electricity generated by non-hydro renewable energy resources will reach 7 514×10⁸ kW·h, accounting for 9.94% of the total generation, and the CO₂ emission will be 580.5 kg/(MW·h), decreasing by 27.4% from that in 2005.