基于云模型的汉江上游安康市洪水灾害风险评价

为了加强洪水灾害风险管理,用云模型的方法对安康市1983年和2010年的洪水灾害风险进行评价。在实地调查的基础上,选取8个代表性的指标,建立评价指标体系;采用熵权法计算指标的权重,引入云模型的方法获取洪灾风险隶属度;将权重和隶属度进行转化计算,按照最大隶属度原则,得到2010年和1983年的洪灾风险等级。结果表明:2010年与1983年相比,安康市洪水灾害风险在增加,但部分县区变化不一;高风险主要集中在汉滨区、汉阴县等区域,面积比较稳定;较高风险、较低风险区域增加,中等风险、低风险区域减少;相邻风险等级之间的转化是洪水灾害风险增加的本质表现。

Cloud model-based risk assessment of flood disasters in Ankang City on upper reaches of Hanjiang River

To improve the risk management of flood disasters, risk assessment of flood disasters of 1983 and 2010 in Ankang City was conducted using the cloud model. Eight typical indexes were selected to establish an assessment index system based on field investigation. The entropy method was used to calculate the index weights, and the cloud model was introduced to obtain the membership degrees of flood risk. Through conversion between the index weights and membership degrees, the levels of flood risk of 2010 and 1983 were obtained by means of the principle of maximum membership. Results show that the level of flood risk of 2010 increased as compared to that of 1983 in Ankang City, but the risk changes were different in some counties. Areas with high flood risk were mainly concentrated in the Hanbin District and Hanyin County, and the sizes of those areas were almost unchanged. Areas with relatively high or low flood risk increased, while, areas with moderate or low flood risk decreased. The conversion between adjacent levels of flood risk is the natural behavior when the flood risk increases.