京津唐电网负荷特性分析及预测

关注分析经济发展水平与能源分布对电网负荷特性的改变,将有助于调整与制定相应的用电计划,合理调度发电,降低发电成本,确保安全可靠供电。分析了2005—2013年京津唐电网电力消费特点及负荷的年度变化趋势和月度规律,并对夏季典型日和冬季典型日进行了分析。进一步的,结合国家政策的变化和调整,对2014—2016年电力需求及负荷特性进行了预测,为有序用电、需求侧管理以及制定节能减排政策等提供参考。

Load Characteristics Analysis and Forecast of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Power Grid

Paying attention to the influence of economic development level and energy sources distribution on the loading characteristics of power grid will help to adjust and formulate corresponding power consumption plans, reasonably schedule power generation, lower power generation cost and and ensure safe and reliable power supply. In this paper, the annual growth trend and monthly fluctuations of electric power demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Power Grid from year 2005 to 2013 is investigated, and the load of typical days in summer and winter are analyzed. Furthermore, based on an analysis of the variation and adjustment of the country’s economic policy, the power demand and electric power consumption characteristics from year 2014 to 2016 are forecasted. The above information will provide a reference for electric energy consumption planning, demand side management and formulating policy on energy saving and emission reduction.