冷鲜肉馅中热杀索丝菌预测模型的建立

通过建立数学模型,来快速准确预测和监控瘦肥比例为7:3的冷鲜猪肉馅中优势腐败菌生长情况,选取0、5、10、15、20℃五种不同的温度,建立和验证0～20℃条件下热杀索丝菌的生长预测模型。结果表明,利用Gompertz模型拟合0～20℃条件下热杀索丝菌的生长,判定系数R2均大于0.99,计算得到总的偏差因子和准确因子分别为1.16和0.88;利用平方根模型描述了温度与最大比生长速率和延滞期的关系,二者都呈现了良好的线性关系;由此建立的0～20℃条件下7:3冷鲜猪肉馅中热杀索丝菌的生长预测模型有比较好的预测效果。

Predictive Modeling of the Growth of Brochothrix thermosphacta in Chilled Minced Pork

Mathematical models were established and validated for quick and accurate prediction of the growth of Brochothrix thermosphacta in chilled minced pork with a lean-to-fat ratio of 7：3 during storage at different temperatures （0, 5, 10, 15 ℃ and 20 ℃）. The growth ofBrochothrix thermosphacta at 0-20℃could be described by the Gompertz equation, each with a R2 value of larger than 0.99. The overall average bias factor and accuracy factor were calculated to be 1.16 and 0.88, respectively. The relationships of temperature with maximum growth rate and lag phase were described by the Belehradek mode as linear. As a result, all the predictive models had good prediction ability.