输配电价监管下供电公司投资规模仿真模型研究

输配电价改革是新一轮电力体制改革的重要环节,在输配电价监管下,供电公司投资规模优化将是其未来工作重心。首先参考输配电价政策文件,构建了输配电价核定中资产、费用、收益和税金的量化模型;其次基于系统动力学理论,分析输配电价与各影响因素之间的驱动与制约关系,建立了输配电价和电网投资双向影响模型,该模型包含输配电价-供电公司投资仿真模型和供电公司投资-输配电价仿真模型2个子模型;最后,以某供电公司为案例进行仿真,计算其在恒定输配电价约束下的准许投资规模和在计划投资规模下的输配电价变动情况,针对仿真结果提出了对应的投资优化策略,算例结果验证了仿真模型的可行性。

Investment scale simulation model of power supply company under transmission and distribution price regulation

The reform of transmission and distribution price is an important part of the new round of power system reform. Under the supervision of transmission and distribution price, the optimization of investment scale of power supply companies will be the focus of their future work. Based on transmission and distribution price policy, this paper firstly established the quantification model of assets, costs, allowable income and taxes in the calculation of transmission and distribution price. Secondly, a two-way impact model of transmission and distribution price and grid investment contains two sub models was constructed based on the system dynamics theory, which are the transmission and distribution price to grid investment optimization model and the grid investment to transmission and distribution price simulation model. Finally, a power supply company was taken for example, the allowable investment scale under the constraints of constant transmission and distribution price and the transmission and distribution price variations under planned investment scale are calculated, and the investment optimization strategy was put forward, the results verify the feasibility of the model.