| 基于晴空指数与波动特性的光伏电站可靠性分析 |
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| 作者姓名： | 宗炫君 袁越 蒋科 邹盛 |
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| 作者单位： | 国网江苏省电力有限公司经济技术研究院;河海大学能源与电气学院;中国能源建设集团江苏省电力设计院有限公司 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51477041) |
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| 摘 要： | 为分析光伏电站并网对发电系统可靠性的影响,建立基于晴空指数和波动特性的光伏电站多状态可靠性模型,提出了等间隔与等频的状态划分原则,并根据不同坐标顺序给出2种状态划分方式。采用序贯蒙特卡洛模拟技术评估含光伏电站发电系统的可靠性,基于Roy Billinton测试系统(RBTS)的仿真结果表明:仿真结果与实测数据相吻合,证实模型的合理性;光伏电站等频原则kDCI/kVI划分方式下的可靠性模型能够有效提高分析精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 光伏电站 可靠性模型 晴空指数 波动特性 状态划分 序贯蒙特卡洛模拟 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/8/22 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/9/12 0:00:00 |
Reliability analysis for the PV power plant based on the clearness index and variability characteristic |
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| Authors: | ZONG Xuanjun YUAN Yue JIANG Ke ZOU Sheng |
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| Affiliation: | State Grid Jiangsu Electric Co., Ltd. Economic Research Institute, Nanjing 210008, China;College of Energy and Electrical Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;College of Energy and Electrical Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;China Energy Engineering Group Jiangsu Power Design Institute Co., Ltd., Nanjing 211102, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to analyze the influence of grid connected PV power plant on the reliability of power generation system, a multi-state reliability model of PV power plant is established based on the clearness index and fluctuation characteristic, a state division principle of equal interval and equal frequency is proposed,and two state division methods according to different coordinate orders are gave. Then sequential Monte Carlo simulation technology is utilized to assess the reliability of generation system with PV power plant. Simulation results on Roy Billinton test system(RBTS)are in line with measured data demonstrate the rationality of proposed model. Finally, simulation results show that the model with equal frequency division principle and kDCI/kVI state division method can get more accurate results in reliability analysis of the generation system with PV power plant. |
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| Keywords: | PV power plant reliability model clearness index fluctuation characteristic state division sequential Monte Carlo simulation |
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