当代世界钢铁工业发展和“中国方案”建议

 为探究中国钢铁工业发展,统计分析了1970—2018年包括中国、美国、日本、德国、法国、韩国、伊朗等34个世界经济体单位GDP钢材表观消费量、人均钢材表观消费量与人均GDP之间相互关系。结果表明,单位GDP钢材表观消费量不随人均GDP的增长而增长,恰恰相反,是呈幂函数相关关系下降并逐渐趋于平衡,显然低的单位GDP钢材表观消费量可以创造出很高的人均GDP,不必一味追求提高产量,具有极强的“同一性”;而人均钢材表观消费量与人均GDP的相互关系,则具有强烈的“不同性”,不同经济体可以以3种不同的相互关系类型发展,目前发达国家均呈单边下降类型关系。在此基础上,预测了4种钢产量峰值方案,提出了“中国方案”建议。

Review on world steel industry development in contemporary and “Chinese Approach” proposal

In order to explore the future development of China′s iron and steel industry,the relationship between apparent steel consumption per unit GDP,apparent steel consumption per capita and GDP per capita in 34 world economies including China,the United States,Japan,Germany,France,South Korea and Iran,etc.from 1970 to 2018 was statistically analyzed.The results show that the apparent consumption of steel per unit GDP did not increase with the growth of GDP per capita.On the contrary,there was a decreasing power function correlation tending to be balanced.Low apparent consumption of steel per unit GDP was totally enough to create a high GDP per capita.Thus,there was no need to blindly looking for increase of high production,which leaded to a strong "Identity".While the correlation between apparent steel consumption per capita and GDP per capita showed a strong " Dissimilarity" as different economies could develop in 3 different types of interrelationship.At the moment,the developed countries were all in unilateral decline type.On this basis,4 kinds of peak steel production approaches were forecasted,and the " Chinese Approach" is thus put forward.