2018年国内外油气资源形势分析

2018年,国际油价中低位震荡,布伦特原油现货均价同比增长了31.0%。全球石油市场供需基本平衡,油气上游勘探开发投资回暖。我国石油天然气探明储量止跌回升,原油产量1.89亿吨,保持基本稳定;常规天然气产量1415亿立方米,同比小幅增长6.4%。油气进口持续攀升,原油、天然气对外依存度分别达70.8%和43.2%,均创历史记录。油气勘查取得十多项重大突破。2018年我国石油企业落实中央指示精神,不断加大国内油气勘探开发力度,油气勘查开采管理体制改革有序推进。国际油价波动、主要产油国能源政策走向等均对我国油气行业产生重要影响。预计2019年国际油价中低位震荡,布伦特原油现货价格主要保持在50～70美元/桶水平。2019年原油产量约1.9亿t,常规天然气产量超过1500亿m3,页岩气产量超过150亿m3,继续保持较快增长。

Domestic and international oil &gas resources situation analysis in 2018

In 2018, the international oil price fluctuated at a middle low level, and the average spot price of Brent crude oil increased by 31.0%. The global oil market has a basic balance between supply and demand, and the upstream oil and gas exploration, development and investment have recovered. China"s proven reserves of oil and natural gas rebounded, with crude oil output of 189 million tons, which remained basically stable; conventional natural gas production was 141.5 billion cubic meters, a slight increase of 6.4% year-on-year. Oil and gas imports continued to climb, and external dependence on crude oil and natural gas reached 70.8% and 43.2% respectively, both setting new historical records. More than ten major breakthroughs have been made in oil and gas exploration. In 2018, China"s petroleum enterprises implemented the spirit of the central directive, continuously increased domestic oil and gas exploration and development efforts, and reformed the oil and gas exploration and mining management system in an orderly manner. The fluctuation of international oil prices and the trend of energy policies of major oil-producing countries have all had an important impact on China"s oil and gas industry. It is expected that the international oil price will fluctuate at a low level in 2019, and the price of Brent crude oil will remain at 50-70 US dollars/barrel. It is estimated that crude oil production will be about 190 million tons in 2019, conventional natural gas production will exceed 150 billion cubic meters, and shale gas production will exceed 15 billion cubic meters, which will continue to maintain rapid growth.