基于改进型引力模型的中国铜矿石进口影响因素实证分析

根据联合国贸易统计署(UN Comtrade)、USGS以及中国自然资源部数据统计,2012～2017年期间,我国铜矿消费量以及进口量居于世界首位;2017年以来,中国铜矿经济可采储量出现负增长。中国铜矿资源保障程度较低,经济可采储量下降,致使铜矿对外依存度不断增加。因此,探寻我国铜矿进口来源地及贸易过程中的关键性影响因素,对制定铜矿进出口政策以及缓解我国铜矿进口压力具有十分重要的意义。本文在传统引力模型的基础上,引入人口、GDP等指标,构建新型引力模型。同时,选取2012～2017年期间,中国与智利、秘鲁、蒙古国、澳大利亚、墨西哥的铜矿贸易量及其他相关数据,进行计量回归分析。结果表明：影响我国铜矿进口的最显著因素为出口国因素,即出口国铜矿储量、出口国铜矿产量、出口国铜矿人均消费量对中国进口影响十分显著;贸易空间上的间接影响因素与中国铜矿进口存在相关性,但影响效果不显著。

An empirical analysis of the influencing factors of China

According to UN Comtrade, USGS and China"s Ministry of Natural Resources, China"s copper consumption and imports ranked first in the world from 2012 to 2017. Since 2017, China"s economic recoverable copper reserves have seen negative growth. China"s low level of copper resource security and the decline in economically recoverable reserves have led to an increasing dependence on foreign copper resources. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the source of China"s copper imports and the key influencing factors in the process of trade for the formulation of copper import and export policies and the alleviation of China"s copper import pressure. Based on the traditional gravity model, this paper introduces population, GDP and other indicators to build a new gravity model. At the same time, the volume of copper trade and other relevant data between China and Chile, Peru, Mongolia, Australia and Mexico from 2012 to 2017 are selected for econometric regression analysis. The results show that the most significant factors affecting China"s copper imports are the exporting country factors, i.e. the copper reserves in the exporting country, the copper output in the exporting country and the per capita copper consumption in the exporting country have a significant impact on China"s imports. Indirect factors in trade space are related to China"s copper imports, but the effect is not significant.