综合能源系统运行可靠性评估综述及展望

研究综合能源系统的运行可靠性评估对规避综合能源系统的短期风险、保障其安全稳定运行具有重要价值。考虑系统运行状态、实时运行环境等因素的影响，分析综合能源系统在当前状态下未来短期内的可靠性水平，通过给出实时的运行可靠性指标为系统的运行调度提供决策支持。首先介绍综合能源系统的发展背景及意义、运行可靠性评估的概念及必要性；然后从运行可靠性评估建模、模型驱动以及数据驱动的运行可靠性评估方法3个方面，对国内外研究现状进行梳理，并分析归纳当前综合能源系统运行可靠性评估研究所面临的亟需解决的问题；最后针对问题，提出模型-数据混合驱动的综合能源系统运行可靠性评估思路，并对未来的研究方向进行展望。

Review and prospect of operational reliability evaluation of integrated energy system

Operational reliability evaluation of integrated energy system is of great value to avoid short-term risks and ensure the safe and stable operation. The short-term reliability of integrated energy system under the current state is analyzed, and the decision support for system operation scheduling by giving real-time operational reliability indices is provided. Firstly, the background of the integrated energy system and the necessity of operational reliability evaluation are introduced. Secondly, from the aspects of operational reliability evaluation modeling, model driven and data driven operational reliability evaluation approaches, the research status is reviewed and the key problems faced currently are analyzed and summarized. Finally, the idea of model-data hybrid driven operational reliability evaluation of integrated energy system is proposed and the future research directions are prospected.