基于故障机理与随机线性模型的电子产品寿命预测

为解决传统可靠性评估方法存在的局限性以及普通线性模型在描述产品退化过程中存在的不足，提出一 种基于故障机理与随机线性退化模型的寿命预测方法。对产品的故障模式及机理进行研究，运用随机线性模型对产 品的关键性能特征参数进行建模分析，采用极大似然估计的方法求解模型中的未知参数，并对产品的寿命与可靠性 进行预测。实验结果表明：该方法具有较好的预测精度和一定的小样本处理能力，对电子产品的寿命与可靠性预测 具有一定的参考意义。

Life Prediction of Electronic Products Based on Fault Mechanism and Stochastic Linear Degradation Model

In order to solve the limitations of traditional reliability assessment methods and the shortcomings of common linear models in describing product degradation, a life prediction method is proposed, which is based on fault mechanism and stochastic linear degradation model. The failure mode and mechanism of the product are studied. The stochastic linear model is used to model and analyze the key performance parameters of the product. The maximum likelihood estimation method is used to solve the unknown parameters in the model, and then the life and reliability are predicted. The experimental result shows that the method has good prediction accuracy and a certain small sample processing capability, and has certain reference significance for the life and reliability prediction of electronic products.