台风对电力系统连锁故障的影响分析

在分析连锁故障现有模型的基础上，在多时间尺度连锁故障预测模型中考虑台风对线路故障概率的动态影响，建立台风变化过程与连锁故障事故链的配合关系。考虑台风影响下的线路故障概率，构造初始故障集；结合天气因素、线路负载率和潮流波动率等因素构造关联性指标，利用聚类方法选取关联性指标高的线路作为下一级故障线路，模拟重载等因素引起的线路随机开断；将基于潮流追踪的切机切负荷与发电机调整相结合，用于线路一般过载的控制，并计算事故链的概率和风险；最后以IEEE 39节点系统为例，说明台风对系统关键线路和事故链的影响、基于潮流追踪的切机切负荷控制的作用和提高线路设计风速的可能性，并验证了所提模型和算法的合理性。

Impact analysis of typhoon on cascading failure for electric power system

Based on the analysis of the existing model of cascading failure, the dynamic influence of typhoon on the line failure probability in the multi-time scale cascading failure model is considered and the cooperation relationship between typhoon change process and cascading failure fault chain is established. Considering the failure probability of line under the influence of typhoon, the initial fault set is constructed. Combining the factors of weather, line load rate, tidal fluctuation rate and so on, the correlation indicator is constructed. The lines with higher correlation index that selected by clustering method are taken as next outage lines to simulate the random line outage caused by heavy load and other factors. The load(generation) shedding based on power flow tracking and generation adjustment are combined to control the general overload lines and calculate the probability and risk value of all fault chains. Finally, with the IEEE 39-bus system taken as an example, the influence of typhoon on critical lines and fault chains, the effect of load(generation) shedding control based on power flow tracking and the possibility of improving design wind speed are demonstrated by case study, and the rationality of the model and algorithm are verified.