石油罐区火灾爆炸事故风险评价

为研究石油罐区火灾爆炸事故多因素耦合视角下的风险定量评价方法，从人、机、环、管四个方面进行石油罐区火灾爆炸事故风险因素辨识，基于系统动力学构建石油罐区火灾爆炸事故风险因素因果回路模型研究各风险因素之间的耦合作用；通过构建相互作用矩阵对石油罐区进行风险评价研究，得出耦合视角下石油罐区火灾爆炸事故风险权重及风险评价等级；结合惠州某石油罐区实际案例对该风险评价模型进行应用。结果表明，该石油罐区风险处于中度风险严重度状态，影响该石油罐区安全最主要的因素包括人员违章操作风险、设备故障风险、安全管理实施力度风险以及人员安全意识风险。

Risk evaluation of fire and explosion accidents in oil tank zone

In order to research on the quantitative risk evaluation methods of the fire and explosion accidents in oil tank zone from a view of multi-factor coupling, firstly, the researchers recognize the risk elements of fire and explosion accidents in oil storage tank area from four aspects, i.e., people, machines, environment and management and research on the coupling effect between different risk elements through constructing the cause-result models of the risk elements in fire and explosion accidents in oil storage tank area based on system dynamics;secondly, the researchers do risk evaluation research of oil storage tank area through constructing interaction matrix, and obtain the risk weight and risk assessment grade of fire and explosion accidents in oil storage tank area from a coupling perspective;finally, apply this risk evaluation model in the real case of an oil storage tank area in Huizhou.The results show that the oil storage tank area is in middle risk level with serious status, and the main elements that affect the safety of the oil storage tank area include the risks of personnel violation operations, equipment failures, the lack in the enforcement level in safety management and personnel safety awareness.