基于MCS-CB的三通管内铝粉爆炸风险分析

为研究粉尘爆炸及抑爆后的风险变化，构建了基于蒙特卡罗模拟的粉尘爆炸不确定性风险及其概率变量评估方法，对三通管内铝粉爆炸压力动态不确定性变化及粉尘爆炸超压不确定性风险进行分析。结果表明：中位粒径为35 μm、质量浓度为500 g/m3的铝粉在典型位置三通管处爆炸超压服从Gamma分布，其爆炸超压平均值为0.10 MPa；蒙特卡罗模拟结果显示，以超过50%概率区间为例，分岔口处铝粉爆炸超压致管道结构损坏的风险性为85.41%，加入7.5%磷酸二氢铵后，超压对于管道结构的致损风险减小至45%。

Risk analysis of aluminum dust explosion in T-branch pipeline based on MCS-CB method

A novel method of uncertainty risk prediction and probability variable evaluation for dust explosion based on Monte Carlo simulation was established to study the risk of dust explosion and its reduction with suppression. The dynamic pressure changes of aluminum dust explosion and the followed uncertainty risk in the T-branch pipeline were calculated and analyzed, whose results show that the explosion overpressure of the aluminium dust with a median particle size of 35 μm at a mass concentration of 500 g/m3 changes in the shape of Gamma distribution with the average value of 0.10 MPa. Taking the probability interval of more than 50% as an example, the simulated results of Monte Carlo show that the risk of pipeline structure damage caused by explosion overpressure is 85.41%. However, with 7.5% ammonium dihydrogen phosphate, the damage risk of overpressure on pipeline structure is reduced to 45%.