基于模糊集对分析-五元减法集对势的新疆水资源承载力评价

为定量评价新疆各地州水资源承载力状况、识别需要进行水资源承载力调控的地区,建立了新疆水资源承载力指标体系与评价等级标准,构建了模糊集对评价模型,结合五元减法集对势对新疆15个地州水资源承载力进行评价并诊断其发展态势。结果表明:新疆水资源承载力呈现出北疆较好、南疆其次、东疆稍弱的情况,评级为Ⅰ级的地区占13.4%,Ⅱ级占20%,Ⅲ级占20%,Ⅳ级占33.3%,Ⅴ级占13.3%,其中伊犁州水资源承载力最强,和田地区承载状况最差;吐鲁番地区的五元减法集对势值为-0.233 02、哈密地区为-0.303 1、阿克苏地区为-0.240 5、和田地区为-0.215 4,属于偏反势发展,需进行承载力调控;模糊集对分析评价结果与模糊聚类、物元分析法评价结果大体一致,具有可靠性。研究结果可为新疆水资源合理配置与调控提供可靠的科学依据。

Assessing Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Xinjiang Using Fuzzy Set Pair Analysis and Five-variable Subtraction Set Pair Potential

In the purpose of assessing quantitatively the water resources carrying capacity in Xinjiang and identifying areas where water resources carrying capacity needs to be regulated, we constructed the index system and rating standard for water resources carrying capacity in Xinjiang and built a fuzzy set pair evaluation model. In association with the five-variable subtraction set pair potential, we assessed the water resources carrying capacity of fifteen prefectures in Xinjiang and diagnosed their trends. Results unveiled that the water resources carrying capacity of north Xinjiang is better than that in south Xinjiang and east Xinjiang in sequence. Areas at level Ⅰ accounted for 13.4% of Xinjiang, level Ⅱ 20%, level Ⅲ 20%, level Ⅳ 33.3%, and level Ⅴ 13.3%. The water resources carrying capacity of Ili Prefecture is the largest, and that of Hetian District the smallest. The value of five-variable subtraction set pair potential of Turpan region is -0.233 02, and Hami region -0.303 1, Aksu region -0.240 5, and Hetian -0.215 4, which belongs to the partial reverse potential, implying that the bearing capacity needs to be regulated. The results of fuzzy set pair analysis are generally consistent with those of fuzzy clustering and matter-element analysis. The research findings offer reliable scientific basis for the rational allocation and regulation of water resources in Xinjiang.