计及灵活性基于时序的“十四五”储能需求分析

“十四五”期间，随着风电、光伏装机规模增加，系统净负荷波动增强，对储能等灵活性资源的需求不断增强。同时，储能技术不断发展成熟，成本不断下降，逐步应用于电力系统的各个环节，因此有必要建立计及系统灵活性需求的储能优化规划模型，以更加科学的方法评估中国未来五年储能的发展需求。首先给出了计及电力系统灵活性基于时序曲线的运行模拟模型方法和储能需求分析流程，以系统总成本最低为优化目标，考虑了投资决策约束和运行约束，可统筹优化系统目标水平年的储能结构及容量。其次，基于以上模型方法，优化计算了2025年中国七大区域电网协议送电模式下的储能容量，并分析了配置储能的原因，开展了灵活调节模式下的储能容量对比分析。最后，基于以上分析，总结了“十四五”期间，中国电力系统储能容量、新能源发电量、弃风和弃光率及综合用电成本等结论，为储能未来五年的规划提供技术支撑。

Demand Analysis of Energy Storage for the 14th Five-Year Plan Period Based on Time Series Considering Power System Flexibility

During the "14th Five-Year” period, the rapid growth of installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic systems will intensify the fluctuation of the system net load. It is inevitable that the demand for flexible resources such as energy storage will continue to rise. Meanwhile, as the energy storage technology is becoming more mature and the cost continues to fall, it tends to be gradually applied to every aspects of the power system. Therefore, it is necessary to establish an energy storage optimization planning model which takes into account the demands of system flexibility to evaluate the demands of China's energy storage in the next five years more scientifically. This article first proposes the operation simulation model method and energy storage demand analysis process based on the time sequence curve considering the flexibility of the power system. Specifically, by taking the minimization of total system cost as the optimization objective subject to the investment decision constraints and operation constraints, the structure and capacity of energy storage for the target-level year are coordinated and optimized. Secondly, based on the proposed model and methods, the optimal energy storage capacities under the protocol power transmission mode for China's seven regional power grids in 2025 are calculated respectively. The configuration of energy storage are analyzed and comparative analysis of energy storage capacity under the flexible adjustment mode is also carried out. Finally, based on the above analysis, we summarized the conclusions regarding China’s power system energy storage capacity, new energy generation capacity, wind curtailment and solar curtailment rate, and comprehensive electricity cost during the “14th Five-Year” period, which will provide technical support for the planning of energy storage in the next five years.