Predicting effects of exploitation rate on weight-at-age, population dynamics, and bioaccumulation of PCDD/Fs and PCBs in herring (Clupea harengus L.) in the Northern Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea ecosystem and fish stocks contain high concentrations of environmental chemicals such as polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). This study forecasts how changes in fishing or natural mortality would probably influence concentrations of PCDD/F and PCB in the Bothnian Sea (Northern Baltic) herring (Clupea harengus L.). An age-structured simulation model was developed to forecast herring stock dynamics, catches, and weight-at-age under different assumptions about exploitation and natural mortality. The simulated herring weight-at-age estimates were employed in a bioenergetics model capable of simultaneous estimation of bioaccumulation of 17 PCDD/F and 37 PCB congeners. Although the natural variability in recruitment greatly influences the stock dynamics, considerable changes in weight-at-age would ensue changes in exploitation rate or in natural mortality rate. If exploitation rates increase, growth rates would be higher and herring in the weight categories of commercial fisheries would be younger and contain less PCDD/F and PCB. Hence, the average toxicant concentrations in catches would also decline. However, it is likely that only fairly small changes would occur in toxicant concentrations-at-age. On the other hand, a drastic decrease in herring fishing would substantially increase PCDD/F and PCB concentrations in herring. The study indicated that, in spite of the clear influences of fishing on the toxicant concentrations, fishing alone cannot resolve the problems associated with a high concentration of toxicants in herring; further decreases in loading are still required.