基于多因素综合评价和改进灰色关联的供电可靠性研究

利用区域配电网影响供电可靠性的因素,对供电可靠性综合评价指标进行关联分析可为配电网供电可靠性提升优选提供依据。首先,通过对各项供电可靠性指标进行相关性分析,引入相关性影响系数,对层次分析法和熵权法结合的组合赋权修正以确定供电可靠性综合评价指标。其次,针对传统灰色关联分析的不足,引入距离影响系数对供电可靠性影响因素进行关联分析,计算出各影响因素对综合评价指标的关联度并排序。最后,以实际数据进行验证,结果表明该分析方法能有效地识别出供电可靠性薄弱地区以及对供电可靠性影响较大的因素,对供电可靠性提升具有一定的参考价值。

Research on power supply reliability based on multi-factor comprehensive evaluation and improved gray relation

Correlation analysis between the comprehensive evaluation index of power supply reliability and influencing factors can provide effective evidence for power supply reliability promotion in a distribution network. First, the correlation influence coefficients are obtained through the correlation analysis of various power supply reliability indicators, and the comprehensive weight method combined with an analytic hierarchy process and improved entropy method are corrected by a correlation influence coefficient to determine comprehensive indicators. Second, a distance influence coefficient is introduced to overcome the shortcoming of traditional gray correlation analysis. Then the correlation degree of each influence factor is calculated to the comprehensive evaluation index and it is subsequently ranked. Finally, the actual data is used for verification, and the results show that the analysis method can effectively identify areas with weak power supply reliability and factors that have a greater impact on power supply reliability. This has a certain reference value for improving power supply reliability. This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai (No. 19ZR1420700) and the Local Capacity Building Project of Shanghai Science and Technology Committee (No. 18020500900).