天然气水合物资源量估算研究进展及展望

天然气水合物资源量对天然气水合物在能源和环境中的地位与作用极为重要，本文综述了40多年来世界各国学者对全球天然气水合物资源量的研究成果，将天然气水合物资源量的估算研究分为三个阶段：初始阶段（1970s ~ 1980s早期）；发展阶段（1980s ~ 2000s早期）；理性阶段（2000s ~ 目前）。研究认为：随着天然气水合物勘探开发研究程度的加深，从一个阶段到另一个阶段全球天然气水合物中甲烷量估算值至少降低了一个数量级，天然气水合物实际样品的获得使得水合物资源量估算方法日趋完善，估算参数更加接近实际地质情况，估算值更加趋于理性，目前反映全球海底天然气水合物资源量的合理范围为（1 ~ 3）× 10¹⁵ m³。

New Progress and Outlook of Potential Resources Volume of Natural Gas Hydrate

The size of gas hydrate reservoir is very important to the future energy resource and environment. The potential total resources volume of gas hydrate in the past 40 years is integrated and evaluated, which could be divided into three periods: the initial stage (1970s ~ early 1980s), the developmental stage (1980s ~ early 2000s), and the rational stage (2000s ~ present). It appears that the estimates of gas hydrates decreased by at least one order of magnitude from one stage to another. The decrease of estimates is a result of growing research of gas hydrates exploration and development. With the acquisition of actual samples of gas hydrate, the method of estimation hydrate resource is getting more and more mature; estimation parameters are getting closer and closer to the actual geological conditions; estimated value becomes more and more rational. The best estimated amount of the global marine gas hydrate resources is (1 ~ 3) × 10¹⁵ m³.