| AR模型在宝珠寺水库实时洪水预报校正中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈攀,;姜志群. AR模型在宝珠寺水库实时洪水预报校正中的应用[J]. 水利水文自动化, 2014, 0(3): 41-44 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈攀, 姜志群 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]华电四川发电有限公司宝珠寺水力发电厂,四川广元628003; [2]南京江山同和水利水电技术有限公司,江苏南京210000 |
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| 摘 要： | 人类活动改变了流域下垫面,对洪水预报精度产生极大的影响,引进实时校正模型以提高洪水预报精度。根据宝珠寺水库的自然地理和水文气象特性,宝珠寺水库实时洪水预报采用新安江模型,实时校正模型采用时间序列AR模型。利用10年历史降雨径流资料,对新安江和实时校正模型的参数进行率定,并利用近年的2次洪水对模型进行检验,检验结果表明实时校正能明显地提高洪水预报的精度。
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| 关 键 词： | AR模型 洪水预报 实时校正 宝珠寺水库 |
Application of AR Model for Flood Forecasting Correction in Baozhusi Reservoir |
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| Affiliation: | CHEN Pan , JIANG Zhiqun (1. Baozhusi Hydropower Plant of Sichuan Power Generation Co., Ltd. under Huadian, Guangyuan 628003, China; 2. Nanjing Jiangshantonghe Water Resources and Hydropower Technology Co., Ltd., Nanjing 210000, China) |
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| Abstract: | The watershed underlying surface is changed by human activities and it influences the precision of flood forecasting, so the real-time correction model is introduced to improve the accuracy of flood forecasting. According to natural geographical, meteorological and hydrological characteristics of the Baozhusi Reservoir, Xinanjiang model is used as real-time flood forecast model and time series AR model is used as real-time correction model. Using historical rainfall runoff data of 10 years, the parameters of the Xinanjiang model and real-time correction model were calibrated. And the model is verified by the 2 floods in recent years. The inspection result shows that the real-time correction can improve the accuracy of flood forecasting obviously. |
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| Keywords: | AR model flood forecasting real-time correction Baozhusi Reservoir |
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