腰坝绿洲降雨、蒸发序列周期演变规律及趋势预测

为了研究腰坝绿洲降雨、蒸发时间序列的周期变化特征及未来发展趋势,采用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall检验及Morlet小波变换对巴润别立气象站1954~2012年降雨、蒸发观测资料进行趋势估计、突变检验、周期分析。结果表明,近60年来,腰坝绿洲降雨量呈增多趋势,但变化趋势不显著,蒸发量呈显著减少趋势;降雨、蒸发序列均无突变点;降雨序列存在5、3年的短周期和9、22年的长周期,预测腰坝绿洲2016~2017年将处于降雨偏少期,2018~2020年将处于降雨偏多期;蒸发序列存在3年的短周期和12、22年的长周期,预测腰坝绿洲2016~2020年将处于蒸发偏少期。

Periodicity Variation Analysis and Trend Prediction of Precipitation and Evaporation in Yaoba Oasis

In order to study the periodicity variation and trend prediction of precipitation and evaporation in Yaoba Oasis, based on the precipitation and evaporation data from 1954 to 2012 of Barunbieli weather station, linear trend method, Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis were used to analyze the trend, catastrophe point and periodicity. The results show that the precipitation has upward but not significantly trend and the evaporation has significantly downward trend near 60 years in Yaoba Oasis, while there are no catastrophe point. The precipitation has short periodicity of 5 and 3 years and long periodicity of 9 and 22 years, it will decrease from 2016 to 2017 and increase from 2018 to 2020. The evaporation has short periodicity of 3 years and long periodicity of 12 and 22 years, it will decrease from 2016 to 2020.