重大突发事件的扩散机理研究

重大突发事件的扩散是指事件的地域范围扩大，或破坏损失加剧，或社会影响加深，或性质改变升级。论述了重大突发事件扩散的路径，次生事件的形成往往与多种先发事件相关联，事件之间也存在着往复的放大作用。依据扩散路径特征，将重大突发事件扩散的方式分为辐射式、连锁式、循环式和迁移式等4种。提出了事件本身的发散性、政府危机管理能力不足和公众危机应对能力薄弱是重大突发事件扩散的主要原因。

Proliferation Mechanism of the Significant Emergent Events

The proliferation of the significant emergent events refers to the expanding in the region scope, or the intensifying of the destruction and the loss, or the deepening of the society effect, or the changing and promoting of the property of events. The route of the proliferation of the significant emergent events is extremely complex. The occurrence of secondary events is usually connected with many primary events. The amplification effect also exists between these events. Based on the characteristic of the proliferation route, the modes of the proliferation of the significant emergent events are divided into the radiation type, the chain type, the circulation type and the transference type. The proliferation property of events, the insufficiency of the ability of crisis management of government and the weakness of the ability of crisis disposal of public are the main reasons of the proliferation of the significant emergent events.