半偏减法集对势在区域旱灾风险评估中的应用

为深入挖掘旱灾风险动态评估中评价样本与评价标准之间存在的不确定性问题，提出用半偏减法集对势这一新的联系数伴随函数，建立区域旱灾风险动态评估的半偏减法集对势方法（SSSPP），并应用于宿州市2007—2017年旱灾风险动态评估和风险脆弱性因子识别研究。结果表明:宿州市旱灾风险综合等级基本在2级以上，处于偏危险状态，通过半偏减法集对势值可判别2009、2010及2011年处于偏反势，为高危险年份。通过半偏减法集对势方法识别出了宿州市旱灾风险脆弱性指标有:相对湿润度指数、土壤相对湿度、土壤类型、单位面积水资源量、耕地率、农业人口比例、水库调蓄率、单位面积现状供水能力、单位面积应急浇水能力、灌溉指数、节水灌溉率，这11个指标是宿州市降低旱灾风险等级进一步需要调控的对象。

Application of semipartial subtraction set pair potential method to the dynamic assessment of regional drought risk

To gain the insights into uncertainty issues between evaluation samples and standards of dynamic drought risk assessment, we put forward a novel connection number accompanying function based on semipartial subtraction set pair potential, and constructed a dynamic regional drought risk assessment model built upon semipartial subtraction set pair potential (SSSPP), followed by its application to the dynamic drought risk assessment and vulnerability factor identification of Suzhou city in 2007—2017. The results show that the comprehensive drought risk level of Suzhou city was above level 2 basically, in the partial danger state, while the levels in 2009, 2010 and 2011 were in a partial negative potential (high dangerous years), judged by the SSSPP method. Drought vulnerability indicators of Suzhou city identified were: index of relative wetting degree, relative humidity, soil type, soil water content, rate of cultivated land per unit area, proportion of agricultural population, reservoir storage rate and water status quo of water supply capacity per unit area, emergency ability per unit area, and water saving irrigation index evaluation. Eleven indicators mentioned above were the objects that need to be further regulated to improve the drought risk level in Suzhou.