Effects of climate change on biomass production and substitution in north-central Sweden |
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Authors: | Bishnu Chandra PoudelRoger Sathre Leif Gustavsson Johan Bergh Anders LundströmRiitta Hyvönen |
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Affiliation: | a Ecotechnology, Mid Sweden University, 83125 Östersund, Sweden b Linnaeus University, Växjö, Sweden c Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Alnarp, Sweden d Department of Forest Resource Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden e Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden |
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Abstract: | In this study we estimate the effects of climate change on forest production in north-central Sweden, as well as the potential climate change mitigation feedback effects of the resulting increased carbon stock and forest product use. Our results show that an average regional temperature rise of 4 °C over the next 100 years may increase annual forest production by 33% and potential annual harvest by 32%, compared to a reference case without climate change. This increased biomass production, if used to substitute fossil fuels and energy-intensive materials, can result in a significant net carbon emission reduction. We find that carbon stock in forest biomass, forest soils, and wood products also increase, but this effect is less significant than biomass substitution. A total net reduction in carbon emissions of up to 104 Tg of carbon can occur over 100 years, depending on harvest level and reference fossil fuel. |
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Keywords: | Climate change Forest production Biomass substitution Climate feedback Sweden |
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