Geno-mathematical identification of the multi-layer perceptron

In this paper, we will focus on the use of the three-layer backpropagation network in vector-valued time series estimation problems. The neural network provides a framework for noncomplex calculations to solve the estimation problem, yet the search for optimal or even feasible neural networks for stochastic processes is both time consuming and uncertain. The backpropagation algorithm—written in strict ANSI C—has been implemented as a standalone support library for the genetic hybrid algorithm (GHA) running on any sequential or parallel main frame computer. In order to cope with ill-conditioned time series problems, we extended the original backpropagation algorithm to a K nearest neighbors algorithm (K-NARX), where the number K is determined genetically along with a set of key parameters. In the K-NARX algorithm, the terminal solution at instant t can be used as a starting point for the next t, which tends to stabilize the optimization process when dealing with autocorrelated time series vectors. This possibility has proved to be especially useful in difficult time series problems. Following the prevailing research directions, we use a genetic algorithm to determine optimal parameterizations for the network, including the lag structure for the nonlinear vector time series system, the net structure with one or two hidden layers and the corresponding number of nodes, type of activation function (currently the standard logistic sigmoid, a bipolar transformation, the hyperbolic tangent, an exponential function and the sine function), the type of minimization algorithm, the number K of nearest neighbors in the K-NARX procedure, the initial value of the Levenberg–Marquardt damping parameter and the value of the neural learning (stabilization) coefficient α. We have focused on a flexible structure allowing addition of, e.g., new minimization algorithms and activation functions in the future. We demonstrate the power of the genetically trimmed K-NARX algorithm on a representative data set.