Predicting laser weld reliability with stochastic reduced‐order models

Laser welds are prevalent in complex engineering systems and they frequently govern failure. The weld process often results in partial penetration of the base metals, leaving sharp crack‐like features with a high degree of variability in the geometry and material properties of the welded structure. Accurate finite element predictions of the structural reliability of components containing laser welds requires the analysis of a large number of finite element meshes with very fine spatial resolution, where each mesh has different geometry and/or material properties in the welded region to address variability. Traditional modeling approaches cannot be efficiently employed. To this end, a method is presented for constructing a surrogate model, based on stochastic reduced‐order models, and is proposed to represent the laser welds within the component. Here, the uncertainty in weld microstructure and geometry is captured by calibrating plasticity parameters to experimental observations of necking as, because of the ductility of the welds, necking – and thus peak load – plays the pivotal role in structural failure. The proposed method is exercised for a simplified verification problem and compared with the traditional Monte Carlo simulation with rather remarkable results. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.