油气田产量预测模型的理论研究和应用

分析了Arps递减模型的递减特征和Weibull预测模型在递减阶段的递减特征,提出了一种预测油气田产量的通用模型:Q_t=at^q-1/(1+pbt^q)^1/p,当q=1时,该模型可简化为Arps递减模型;当p→0时,该模型又可简化为Weibull模型。该模型可用以描述开发全过程的产量变化规律和递减率变化规律,因此,适用于各类油气田产量的预测。

Theoretical Research and Application of Production Forecast Model of Oil-Gas Field

The decline characteristics of Arps model and Weibull model in decline stage are analyzed, and a new general model Q_t=at~(q-1)/(1+pbt~q)~(1/p)for production forecast of oil and gas fields is proposed. It can be simplified into Arps decline model and Weibull growth model respectively when q=1 or p→0. The model can be used to describe the entire process of production and decline rate variations. It is applicable to prediction of production, cumulative production and reserves for various kinds of oil and gas fields.