基于情景分析法的2020年我国铜资源需求预测

工业化、城市化进程的加快使得我国铜消费需求增加迅速，国内铜资源供需失衡状况加剧。由于情景分析法结合了定性和定量分析的特点，因此已广泛运用在矿产资源消费预测中。运用情景分析法科学预测2020年我国铜资源消费水平，并根据预测结果为我国如何缓解铜资源供需矛盾提供合理化建议。通过对比发现，“中情景”模式预测结果比较符合实际情况，一方面表明未来我国国内铜供需失衡状况依然严重，另一方面建议要通过“走出去”和“立足国内，开源节流”两种渠道来增加铜供给。同时，“高情景”和“低情景”模式预测结果也有其指导意义，即通过致力于调整产业结构、降低单位GDP能耗水平来尽量实现“低情景”发展模式，避免“高情景”模式的出现。

A PREDICATION OF CHINA'S 2020 COPPER DEMAND BASED ON SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Industrialization and urbanization speeds up a fast copper consumption, leading to an imbalance in domestic copper supply and demand. The scenario analysis as an integration of quantitative andqualitative analysis has been widely applied in predicting ore resources consumption. This paper uses scenario analysis to predict China,s 2020 copper demand and presents suggestions in mitigating gap incopper supply and demand. The prediction from “middle scenario mode” is consistent with facts, indicating the gap is still severe. It is suggested that the copper supply can be increased from investingoverseas and exploring internally. The “high scenario mode” and “low scenario mode” are also of significance, which can be avoided from adjusting industrial structure and reducing GDP energyconsumption level.