蚂蚁森林种植地鄂尔多斯市1959-2018年气温及降水变化特征研究

基于鄂尔多斯市3个气象站点1959-2018年逐月降水及气温数据,使用M-K检验法、滑动平均、Morlet小波分析法、线性回归及R/S分析法,对蚂蚁森林种植地鄂尔多斯市1959-2018年气温及降水特征进行分析。结果表明:近60年鄂尔多斯市年平均气温、年降水量和年极端气温呈上升趋势,气候正向暖湿化发展; 1993、1970、1987和1961年分别为年平均气温和年极端最高、最低气温以及年降水量的突变时间;年极端最低、最高气温和年降水量以及年平均气温的共振周期为28 a;在鄂尔多斯市未来气候变化特征分析的Hurst指数中,年降水量小于0. 5,年极端最低气温、最高气温和年平均气温均高于0. 5,表明气温在未来一段时期还会呈上升趋势,降水则呈下降趋势。

Study on temperature and precipitation change characteristics of ant forest plantation in Ordos City from 1959 to 2018

Based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data of three meteorological stations in Ordos from 1959 to 2018, the characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Ordos from 1959 to 2018 were analyzed using the M-K test, moving average, Morlet wavelet analysis, linear regression and R/S analysis. The results show that in the past 60 years, annual average temperature, annual precipitation and annual extreme temperature in Ordos City showed an upward trend, and the climate was warming and humidifying. The abrupt change time of annual average temperature, annual extreme maximum temperature, minimum temperature and annual precipitation were 1993, 1970, 1987 and 1961, respectively. 28 a is the resonance period of annual extreme minimum, maximum temperature, annual precipitation and annual average temperature. In the Hurst index of future climate change analysis in Ordos City, annual precipitation is less than 0.5, annual extreme minimum temperature, maximum temperature and annual average temperature are higher than 0.5, indicating that the temperature will increase in the future, while precipitation will decrease.