海外矿山项目并购宏观经济风险评价

在“走出去”战略的大背景下，我国资源型企业海外并购取得较大的发展，然而，我国的海外矿山项目并购却有70%走向失败。宏观经济风险是海外矿山项目并购失败最主要的风险来源之一，文章在对宏观经济风险的主要影响因素进行识别的基础上，构建海外矿山项目并购的宏观经济风险评价指标体系，运用德尔菲法确定各个评价指标的权重；其次建立基于TOPSIS和灰色关联理论的宏观经济风险评价模型；最后以我国稀土矿海外并购项目为例，评价9个稀土资源大国的宏观经济风险状况，评价结果显示：美国，马来西亚，澳大利亚3个国家宏观经济风险处于“低”水平；越南，印度，巴西3个国家宏观经济风险处于“高”水平。

Macroeconomic risk evaluation of oversea mine projects M & A

In the context of “going out”strategy,the Chinese resources-oriented enterprises have made great progress in overseas M&A. However, 70 percent of Chinese overseas M&A projects have failed. Macroeconomic risk is one of the most important risk sources. Firstly, this paper identified the main factors of the overseas mining M&A projects macroeconomic risk, and established the risk evaluation index system. And the Delphi method was used to give the weight to each index. Secondly, this paper built a macroeconomic risk evaluation model based on TOPSIS and grey relation theory. Then taking Chinese rare earth overseas M&A projects as examples, the macroeconomic risk of nine countries with abundant rare earth resources were evaluated. The research results show that the macroeconomic risks of USA, Australia and Malaysia are “low”, and that of Vietnam, India and Brazil are “high”.