利用概率天气预报的通航飞行路径规划

为解决实际天气与天气预报不一致时根据确定性天气预报所规划飞行路径效益低的问题,提出一种利用以概率方式给出的天气预报,对通用航空飞行路径进行规划的方法。该方法利用由集合数值天气预报得到的概率天气预报信息,构建空域概率天气模型,使用分阶段飞行路径规划方法保障预期规划目标的实现,将飞行路径规划分解为多个阶段,除第一阶段外,从每个阶段的每个起始点出发都分别规划绕飞和穿越可能的危险天气区域两条不同的路径,各阶段的不同路径采用A*算法进行搜索,得到包含多条飞行路径的规划飞行路径集合。实验结果表明,在保证安全性的前提下,该方法规划的飞行路径与其他典型算法规划的飞行路径相比,在统计意义上的期望飞行距离显著减小。 

Flight Path Planning for General Aviation Using Probabilistic Weather Forecasting

A flight path planning method for general aviation using probabilistic weather forecast is proposed to solve the problem that the benefit of the flight path planned through deterministic weather forecast is low when the real weather condition is inconsistent with the forecast. The probabilistic weather forecast generated by ensemble numerical weather forecast is utilized to establish a probabilistic weather airspace model in the proposed method. Then a phased flight path planning is used to guarantee the expected requirement. The flight path planning is divided into several phases. Two different flight paths are planned from each start point in each phase except the first phase. One is the path completely avoiding risk regions and the other is the path crossing possible dangerous weather regions. The different paths in each phase are planned utilizing A* algorithm. Finally, an ensemble planned flight path containing several path is obtained. The experiment results using real probabilistic weather forecast data and simulated random probabilistic weather forecast data indicate that the statistical expected flight distance of the flight path obtained by proposed method is significantly shorter compared with other typical methods on the premise of ensuring safety.