基于贝叶斯-GO综合法的快递配送系统可靠性研究

提出用贝叶斯-GO综合方法分析快递配送系统可靠性。首先综合考虑配送系统对时间、品质、服务可靠性的要求，详细分析配送工作流程及其影响因素，建立GO图；然后根据映射规则转换为贝叶斯网络，最后通过案例分析，利用贝叶斯网络正反向推理和敏感度分析，得到系统的薄弱环节及其主要影响因素。研究结果表明：贝叶斯-GO综合法克服了单独使用GO法逻辑运算复杂繁琐的缺点，能够快速找到快递配送系统的薄弱环节及其主要影响因素，其中收件子系统故障率最高，快递员的配送不及时、寄件损坏、丢失是主要影响因素。

A Research on Reliability of Express Delivery System Based on Bayesian-GO Method

A Bayesian-GO integrated method is proposed to analyze the reliability of express delivery system. Firstly, the distribution workflow and its influencing factors are analyzed in detail considering the requirements of time, quality and service reliability of the distribution system comprehensively, and the GO map is established. Then according to the mapping rules, it is converted into Bayesian network. Finally, through the actual case analysis, Bayesian network forward and backward reasoning and sensitivity analysis are used to obtain the weak links of the system and its main influencing factors. The results show that the Bayesian-GO synthesis method overcomes the shortcomings of the complicated operation of the GO method alone, and can quickly find the weak link of the express delivery system and its main influencing factors. Among them, the failure rate of the receiving subsystem is the highest. The damage and loss of the mail and time reliability are the main influencing factors.