灰色理论用于遥测数据中长期预测

针对卫星在轨测控过程中，遥测数据变化趋势不易判断这一问题，提出了对遥测数据进行中长期预测的思想.基于灰色系统理论，结合遥测数据特点和中长期预测要求，对灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的建模过程和预测精度进行研究.依据所构建的模型进行预测验证分析，根据后验差比值、小误差概率、预测精度对预测结果的评价分析显示，该方法可以对遥测数据中长期趋势起到提前预报的作用，符合卫星遥测数据中长期预测要求.预测结果能够为测控人员对卫星遥测数据未来趋势的分析和潜在故障的预警判断提供理论支持.

Prediction of medium and long-term telemetry data by grey theory

Aimed at the trend of telemetry data difficult to determine during the monitoring process of satellite in-orbit,an idea of medium and long-term forecasting telemetry was put forward.The modeling process and prediction accuracy of GM （1,1） model was studied based on the gray system theory,the characteristics of telemetry data and long-term forecasts requirement.The prediction model was used in an engineering case.The evaluation results according to posterior poor radio,small error possibility and forecast accuracy show that prediction results play a role in middle long-term trends forecast,meeting the requirements of satellite telemetry data forecast.Predicted results can provide a scientific basis for monitoring personnel to analyze the future trends and forecast the potentialfailure in advance.