| 水资源短缺风险经济损失评估研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 韩宇平,阮本清. 水资源短缺风险经济损失评估研究[J]. 水利学报, 2007, 38(10): 1253-1257 |
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| 作者姓名： | 韩宇平 阮本清 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北水利水电学院,河南,郑州,450011;中国水利水电科学研究院,北京,100044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学墓金项目;华北水利水电学院校科研和教改项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了更准确地评估水资源短缺的经济损失,本文利用水资源投入产出宏观经济模型,对水资源的影子价格进行分析计算,在此基础上得到水资源短缺的经济损失及其概率。同时,对包括北京和天津在内的首都经济圈2010规划水平年的水资源短缺经济损失及其概率分布进行了计算。结果表明,在二次水资源供需平衡下,2010年北京市水资源短缺所造成的期望损失值为23.84亿元,天津市为20.07亿元。
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| 关 键 词： | 水资源短缺 经济损失 宏观经济模型 北京 天津 |
| 文章编号： | 0559-9350（2007）10-1253-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-10-10 |
Economic loss assessment of shortage risk of water resources |
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| HAN Yu ping. Economic loss assessment of shortage risk of water resources[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2007, 38(10): 1253-1257 |
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| Authors: | HAN Yu ping |
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| Affiliation: | North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, Zhengzhou 450011, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to assess the economic loss from the shortage risk of water resources,this paper presented a mathematical model of shadow price of water resources,and obtained the economic loss from the shortage risk of water resources and its probability distribution by means of macro-economic model on the input/output of water resources.The model has been used for assessing the economic loss and the probability distribution of the shortage risk of water resources of Capital Economic Zone including Beijing and Tianjin in the programming year of 2010.The findings indicated that,under two-time balance of demands and supplies, the expected economic losses from the shortage of water resources will be RMB 2.384 billion in Beijing and RMB2.007 billion in Tianjin. |
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| Keywords: | water resources shortage economic loss macroeconomic model Beijing Tianjin |
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