复杂电力系统连锁故障的风险评估

电力系统中的连锁故障是一种发生概率低但后果严重的事故,严重的连锁故障可能导致大面积停电甚至整个系统崩溃。文章提出了一种复杂电力系统连锁故障的风险评估方法,模拟连锁故障的一般发展过程,将事故发生概率及后果联系起来,提出了量化的风险指标,能发现系统运行中更深层次的问题,暴露安全隐患。以此为基础开发了基于风险理论的电力系统连锁故障风险评估软件,并以美国东北部 NPCC 48机测试系统为例验证了该方法的先进性和有效性。

Risk Assessment for Cascading Failures of Complex Power System

Cascading failures in power system are rare processes but often bring severe consequences. Severe cascading failures may cause large scale blackouts or even system collapse. The authors present an approach to evaluate the risk of cascading failures for complex power system, which simulates the general expansion process of cascading failures and associates the occurrence probability of cascading failures with their consequences, then a quantitative risk index is proposed by which the hidden trouble of power system can be discovered and the potential safety hazard can be revealed. On this basis, the software for risk assessment of cascading failures in power system is developed according to risk theory. Taking NPCC 48-machine system for example, the simulation result shows that the proposed method is advanced and effective.