油气储量增长趋势预测方法及其在中国近海油气资源评价中的应用

开展油气储量增长趋势预测对于国家和石油公司油气战略规划具有重要意义，预测结果的合理性主要取决于预测方法或模型的适用性和对盆地石油地质条件的认识程度。国内外现行的储量增长趋势预测方法主要有数学模型法、勘探效益法、递减曲线法、储量-产量历史拟合法、储量-产量双向平衡控制法和油田规模序列法等6种。在研究这些方法的基础上，对其进行了改进和集成，建立了较完善的储量增长趋势预测系统，并应用新的预测系统对中国近海油气资源进行了评价，取得了良好的应用效果。

THE STUDY OF THE FORECASTING APPROACHES ON RESERVE AND APPLYING IN ANALYZING OF OIL RESOURCE POTENTIAL IN CH INA OFFSHORE

The study of the approaches on reserves increasing trend forecasting is significant to every oiland gas corporation. The accuracy extent of results lies on the forecasting methods or models and the study of evaluated unites. There are many methods for reserve forecasting, for example, mathematics models, exploration benefit, the decline curves, historical simulation of reserve output data, oilfield size sequence, etc. The new domestic advanced system are established on methods investigated and improved. These are applied in the strategic program ofanalyzing of oil resource potential in China Offshore. many basins and forecasting units.