应用模糊评判法确定原油管道最佳抢险方案

由于各种因素的影响,原油管道在运行时不可避免地会发生各种事故,因此从多个抢险方案中确定最佳方案十分必要。影响抢险方案比选有许多定性和定量的因素。应用模糊数学评判方法对原油管道抢修抢险方案进行比选,可将许多定性因素转化为定量评定,使得分析更加全面和精确。模糊数学评判法的评判因素集包括可靠度、抢险时间、事故损失、抢险费用、社会影响等,各个因素又由若干因素子集组成,评判集为各个方案的优劣等级。该方法能克服人为主观性带来的不足,为合理确定最佳抢修抢险方案提供了科学依据。

Determining Optimum Scheme of Rushing to Deal with Emergency for Crude Oil Pipeline by Using Fuzzy Evaluation Method

With fuzzy mathematical evaluation method to compare different schemes of rushing to deal with emergency for crude oil pipeline,many qualitative factors can be transformed into quantitative ones,so as to make more complete and accurate analysis. The factor set of fuzzy mathematical evaluation method includes degree of reliability,time and cost of emergency handling,loss,social impact,and so on. Each factor is composed of several factor subsets. Evaluation set is the grade of superior or inferior of scheme. This method can overcome shortcomings arising from subjectivity and offer scientific basis for rationally determining optimum scheme of emergency handling.